Not since my time money broking in London have I heard so many people ‘talking their own book’.
What does that mean? By way of example, I’ve been speaking with a lot of property developers lately while selling development sites in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. Buyers tell me the world is about to end, prices will crash, pre-sales are impossible, funding is tight, supply chains are delayed and construction will take forever due to social distancing. Sellers say pre-sales are strong, prices will bounce back better than ever, building approvals are low, red tape is being cut to allow more building, social distancing doesn’t effect construction, the virus will be beaten soon and it will be back to business as usual.
Deflation is coming like Japan! Hyper-inflation is coming like Zimbabwe!
We’re crashing 20%! It’s just a blip!
Have a quick look at LinkedIn & Facebook. So many experts, so much noise, so much spruiking – so many people talking their own book.
So what’s the truth? Probably somewhere in the middle as always. Nobody has a crystal ball but if you’re lucky enough to still have borrowing capacity or cash in this crisis and you buy the right asset at the right price, there’s no doubt you will do well over the long term. You just need to cut through all that noise and work out who is talking their own book.
As a broker in London, I worked through the subprime crisis, credit crunch, GFC and Euro debt crisis and whether the market was selling off or rallying there was always someone very clever on hand to explain why the market would go up or down next – and half the time they got it wrong. As we used to say – monkeys pick bottoms.
I believe it’s always the right time to buy a good asset, as long as it’s at the right price and you can afford to hold it.
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