As Anthony Albanese gets to work as our new prime minister, you might be wondering how the federal election result will affect property prices.
After all, housing was a key issue of the campaign, with both parties promising to help more Australians get on the property ladder. And if a change of federal government wasn’t enough to contend with, there are also those looming interest rate hikes to consider.
So where next for property prices?
Some economists have warned a downturn is imminent. For example, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says to “expect a 10 to 15% top to bottom fall in [national] prices over the next 18 months”.
Is he right?
While none of us has a crystal ball at our disposal, what we do have are the Australian Bureau of Statistics residential property price indexes.
These indexes track property prices in our eight capital cities so can be used to see what impact, if any, changes of the federal government have had on the property market.
What does the data say?
As the table below shows, Sydney’s median property price has consistently risen over the long-term, irrespective of which political party is in government.
| Term | Federal government | Percentage change in Sydney’s median property price |
| Oct 2004 – Nov 2007 | Coalition | +4.9% (from $515,000 to $540,000) |
| Nov 2007 – Sept 2013 | ALP | +24.1% (from $540,000 to $670,000) |
| Sept 2013 – May 2022 | Coalition | +161.2% (from $670,000 to $1,749,900*) |
*SQM Research’s median asking price in Sydney for the week ending 24 May
Only monkeys pick bottoms
Currently, the media is full of doomsayer property forecasters. So should you wait for their forecasts to come true before buying?
No – for two good reasons.
First, as the famous saying goes, only monkeys pick bottoms, so you can never know at the time when a market has bottomed out. For all we know, it’s already happened.
Second, history tells us that while prices might fluctuate in the short term, the long-term trend has consistently been upwards.
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